知名做空机构香橼研究公司（Citron Research）日前发布报告对Facebook的2018年做出分析并根据市场现状及趋势对其2019年的表现和可能做出预测。香橼极力看好Facebook股价明年表现，称其股价将重回160美元。香橼发布报告称，因该公司营收和用户基础并未受到数据丑闻和隐私问题影响。该机构还表示，我们相信，用户行为向Instagram购物的转变，以及商业流程的个性化，将给投资者带来回报。

　　受此报告影响，Facebook股价美国当地时间周三大涨8.16％，截止收盘股价报134.18美元。他们今年下跌了28％。

　　以下为报告内容原文编译：

　　Facebook的股价将回到160美元

　　两年半前，香橼研究公司表示，Facebook会长期亏空，其用户参与程度也最终将达到极限。当时，Facebook公司股价在120美元左右。在过去30个月里，Facebook的季度营收增长了一倍多，人们原本对参与度还表示担忧，但此后又开始担忧用户会不会“太上瘾”，但该公司股价已回落至120美元附近。

　　2018年是Facebook股东希望忘记的一年，因为该公司股价今年迄今已经下跌了30％，较近期高点下跌了40％以上。然而，当媒体接二连三地报道丑闻时，《纽约时报》甚至试图推动一场“删除Facebook”的运动。事实是，Facebook的营收和更重要的用户基础几乎没有受到影响。

　　当你读到这篇文章时，Facebook已经拥有22亿活跃用户，在这备受争议的12个月里，其营收同比增长33％。考虑到用户基础，除中国以外，这是一个独占鳌头的领先优势。

　　关乎Facebook的只有三个重要话题：

　　1.正确看待Facebook的估值

　　2.Facebook是邪恶的还是可投资的？

　　3.Instagram（照片墙）——反垃圾（Anti CRaP）体验

　　恰当的估值

　　Facebook的增长速度超过了标准普尔500指数的95％，利润率超过了标准普尔500指数的90％。然而，Facebook的股价目前低于标准普尔500指数，而且市盈率也处于历史最低水平。

Facebook企业价值倍数处于历史低位且低于标普平均倍数

　　（EV/EBITDA 又称企业价值倍数，是一种被广泛使用的公司估值指标，公式为，EV÷EBITDA 投资应用：EV/EBITDA和市盈率（PE）等相对估值法指标的用法一样，其倍数相对于行业平均水平或历史水平较高通常说明高估，较低说明低估，不同行业或板块有不同的估值（倍数）水平。EV/EBITDA法估值公司价值： 公司价值EV=市值+总负债-总现金=市值+净负债——编者注）

　　最引人注目的广告平台、拥有最全面的全球人员和企业名录的Facebook，在明年将增长25％的情况下，还能成为一支价值股？这究竟是怎么回事？

　　因为2108年对Facebook来说是“不幸而恶劣”的一年。

　　Facebook是“邪恶”的吗？

　　2018年是Facebook不得不应对的一年，这些问题包括数字成瘾、缅甸的种族灭绝、未能充分监控或限制来自国外的宣传，以及用户隐私遭到多重侵犯。扎克伯格甚至不得不脱掉连帽卫衣向国会解释。

　　虽然Facebook庞大的用户行为及平台数据库已被利用，但这让其变得“邪恶“”并不可投资了吗？

　　让我们看看奥驰亚（Altria），这家公司有“血赚”客户的历史。而且奥驰亚刚刚投资了一家公司，这家公司确保其将在未来几代客户身上继续“血赚”。

　　尽管Facebook预计明年将增长24％，而奥驰亚预计仅增长1％，但Facebook目前的股价不如奥驰亚更受欢迎。

FB和MO企业价值倍数对比

　　你宁愿让你的孩子沉迷于尼古丁还是沉迷Instagram？

Facebook比Twitter更“邪恶”吗？

FB和TWTR市盈率对比

　　或者说，对于那些不能放弃好故事的人来说，Facebook比康宝莱（Herbalife）更邪恶？

FB和HLF企业价值倍数对比

　　Facebook在隐私保护方面取得了进展，并继续对网络进行投资。Facebook以低于奥驰亚和康宝莱的市盈率进行交易，因为其公司的道德问题就是一个巨大的买入机会。

　　还必须指出的是，媒体将Facebook的隐私问题渲染得耸人听闻，这在理智上不够诚实。最近，《纽约时报》爆出了一桩丑闻，称Facebook允许Spotify和Netflix等第三方公司阅读Facebook用户的私人信息。这一消息对Facebook的股价造成了8％的冲击，但正如Facebook解释的那样，实际情况要温和得多。

　　Facebook的下一步计划是什么？消除垃圾还是实现新的电子商务？

　　Facebook还会有其他隐私可泄露吗？可能还有！

　　尽管Facebook的研发预算高达95亿美元，但其系统也不可避免地会被滥用或利用。

　　最让香橼研究公司兴奋的不是流媒体直播、3d照片、平台集成或增强现实。我们相信，用户行为向Instagram购物和商业流程的个性化转变，将给投资者带来回报。

　　上周，杰夫贝佐斯（Jeff Bezos）强调亚马逊不再想卖垃圾（无法实现盈利的）产品，比如纸巾和洗涤剂这类利润较低的商品。贝索斯还称卖这些商品更像是亚马逊的公共服务项目，而不是赚取利润的方式。对所有人来说，做一个万能的商人是不可能的。（顺便说一句，这不是在抨击亚马逊，我们喜欢亚马逊）

　　亚马逊一直是人们“买东西”（buy）的一个地方，而Instagram则成了人们“逐点进行搜购但不一定去买”（shop）的地方。想一下，相比好市多（Costco），你更可能在一般购物商场买东西。

　　购物发生在美元继续流动的地方。正如最近《华盛顿邮报》的头条所明确表达的（讽刺）：

　　“Instagram时代的圣诞节购物，青少年们不再逛商场，而是选择出去闲逛消遣。”

　　或者正如《商业内幕》（Business Insider）所描述的：“Instagram正在革新人们的购物方式，让消费者更容易发现新的、不太知名的品牌。”

　　《广告周刊》（ADWEEK）如此评价：“根据Instagram广告选择购物变得更为普遍。Instagram最近让用户可以在自己的Feed流中购买看到的视频，并能将商品保存到自己保存列表的特定的“购物集合”中，此外这些信息还能在其他商店友好的展示列表中出现。Instagram将成为一个更大的平台，这一平台能让品牌通过故事提供产品交易，创造一种紧迫感和稀缺性。”

　　在社交媒体领域，Facebook和Instagram没有竞争对手。毫不奇怪，Instagram正在打造一款独立式的购物应用。

　　新社交媒体时代的营销就是未来。这就是为什么Adobe在今年早些时候收购了Marketo且成为该公司迄今最大的一笔收购。这也是为什么Shopify的交易价格比竞争对手高出如此之多。

　　Facebook提供的客户体验以及其用户趋势无法复制，就连谷歌或亚马逊也都无法复制。

　　社交图谱结合了有史以来最先进的广告工具，很快，我们就可以拥有自己的个性化购物中心，拥有多个独特的品牌。这令人兴奋。

　　任何使用Instagram或Facebook的人都知道，定向广告是如此之好，以至于我们得承认其有点“吓人”，但这还是值得的。

　　结论

　　Facebook上已经写好的书以及已经拍好的电影都成了“邪恶”的主题，但是Facebook从来没拥有像现在这样吸引人进行投资的机会。由于投资者过度关注隐私和宣传带来的短期影响，使得他们忘记了关注这个在信息、网络和未来购物具有全球影响力的最先进广告平台的盈利能力和潜力。

　　以下为报告内容原文：

　　Citron Research Backing Up the Sleigh on Facebook – 2019 S&P Stock of the Year

　　Separating the Noise from Reality will take Facebook back to $160

　　Two and a half years ago， Citron Research said that FB was a long-term short and that engagement levels would eventually top out. At the time， the stock was trading in the $120 range. In the past 30 months FB has more than doubled its quarterly revenue and concerns of engagement have shifted to concerns of addiction， yet the stock is back down in $120 range. Time to back up the sleigh!

　　Yet， 2018 is a year that Facebook shareholders would like to forget， as the stock is down 30％ YTD and over 40％ from its recent high. Yet， while the media has reported on one scandal after the next and the NYT even tried to promote a #deletefacebook movement. The truth is revenues and more important user base has seen little impact.

　　As you read this article Facebook has 2.2 billion active users and has grown revenues 33％ q over q during this controversial 12 months. Considering the user base excludes China， this is a lead that has no second place.

　　Going Forward

　　There are only three talking points on Facebook that matter:

　　1. Putting Facebook Valuation in Perspective

　　2. Is Facebook Evil or Investible？

　　3. Instagram – the Anti CRaP experience

　　Valuation in Perspective

　　Facebook is growing faster than 95％ of the S&P with margins higher than about 90％ of the S&P. However， for the first time， Facebook is trading at a discount to the S&P and is at its lowest multiple ever.

　　How does the most compelling ad platform with the most comprehensive global directory of people and businesses that is growing 25％ next year become a value stock？？？

　　Because 2018 was the year that Facebook became evil.

　　Is Facebook Evil？

　　2018 was a year that Facebook had to deal with issues ranging from digital addiction， genocide in

　　Myanmar， failure to adequately monitor or curtail propaganda from sources outside the country， and multiple abuses of user privacy. Zuckerberg even had to shed the hoodie to explain himself to Congress.

　　While Facebook’s behemoth database of user behavior and platform has been exploited – does that make them EVIL and un-investible？

　　Let us look at Altria， a company who has a history of killing its customers and just invested in a company that ensures that it will be killing its customers for generations to come.

　　FB is now trading at a discount to MO though FB is expected to grow 24％ next year while MO is only expected to grow 1％.

　　Would you rather have your children addicted to Nicotine or Instagram？

　　Is Facebook more evil than Twitter， which Citron exposed last week as being called “toxic” by Amnesty International？？

　　Or for those who just can’t give up a good story… is Facebook more evil than Herbalife？？

Facebook has made progress with privacy and it continues to invest in the network. To trade at a lower multiple than MO and HLF because of questions about the morality of its business is nothing more than an epic buying opportunity.

　　It also must be noted that the press has resorted to sensationalizing Facebook privacy issues that is not intellectually honest. Nowhere was this dynamic more apparent than in the recent “scandal” from the NYT last week as they published a an expose that claimed Facebook let third-party companies like Spotify and Netflix read private messages from Facebook users. The story hit the stock for 8％ but the reality was a lot more innocuous as explained by Facebook. Read for all those who really care.

　　*Citron opinion – Selling my info to Netflix or Spotify is not nearly as scandalous as putting asbestos in baby powder or stealing $6.5B from foreign governments. While privacy is an issue， it is not like Facebook is involved in the opioid epidemic （whose companies trade in line with $FB）.

　　What is Next For Facebook？ No CRaP… the new E- Commerce

　　Could Facebook have another privacy breach？ Probably

　　Despite Facebook’s massive $9.5B R&D Budget， it is inevitable that the system will somehow be abused or exploited.

　　What excites Citron the most is not the: live streaming， 3d photos， integration of platforms， or augmented reality. We believe investors will be rewarded by the shift of user behavior to Instagram shopping and the personalization of the commerce process.

　　Jeff Bezos opened his kimono again last week and stressed that Amazon no longer wants to sell CRaP （Cannot realize a profit） products. These are the buying products like paper towel and detergent that are commodity low margin products that have become more of a public service of Amazon rather than a profit center. Being the all thing merchant to all people is not a viable business. （btw…this is not a knock against AMZN…we love AMZN）

　　YET

　　While Amazon has always been a place where people go to buy while Instagram has become the place that people go to shop….think of anything you might buy in a mall and not Costco.

　　Shopping is where the $$$$$ will continue to flow. As expressed clearly in the recent Washington Post headline （ironic）:

　　“Christmas shopping in the age of Instagram， where teens hang out instead of the mall”

　　Or as Business Insider noted:

　　“Instagram is revolutionizing the way people shop and making it easy for consumers to discover new， less-established brands.”

　　ADWEEK noted just yesterday

　　“In addition， look for Instagram ads to become more shoppable. Instagram recently made it possible for users to shop videos they see in their feed and save items to a specific “shopping collection” in their saved posts， among other shopper-friendly rollouts. Instagram is going to become a bigger platform for brands to offer product deals through stories， creating a sense of urgency and scarcity， and video-friendly formats such as IGTV”

　　Within social media， Facebook and Instagram have no competition. Not surprisingly， Instagram is building a standalone app for shopping.

　　Marketing in the new social media era is the future. This is why Adobe acquired Marketo earlier this year in the company’s largest acquisition to date and Shopify is trading at such a huge premium to competitors.

　　Facebook’s offering of customer experience and user trends cannot be replicated…. not by Google or Amazon.

The social graph combined with the most advanced advertising tool ever created will soon allow us to have our own personalized shopping malls with multiple and unique brands right in our pocket. That is exciting.

　　Anyone who uses Instagram or Facebook knows the targeted advertising is so good that we admit its borderline scary… but worth it.

　　Conclusion

　　Books have been written and movies have been made on the Facebook is evil topic， but never before has Facebook been this compelling of an investment opportunity. As investors have become overly concerned about the short-term noise of privacy and propaganda， they have forgotten to look at the earnings power and potential of the most advanced advertising tool with global reach in messaging， networking， and the future of shopping.

　　The Facebook platform has advanced a long way and has turned this research firm from a one-time skeptic to a major bull.

　　Cautious Investing To All