德拉吉再次强化欧洲央行的单一政策目标:通货膨胀

1评论 2017-03-10 11:47:51 来源:华尔街见闻 如何判断星期六买点?

  见智研究所在2月的文章中提到,欧洲央行是单一货币政策目标的中央银行,只追求通货膨胀目标,甚至金融稳定都是次要的。

  欧洲央行执委默施(Yves Mersch)在一次演讲中对回购市场的波澜展开评论,他认为

  (1)欧洲央行是单一货币政策目标的央行,即通胀目标。

  (2)欧洲央行先修复市场传导机制,再实施宽松政策。

  (3)对回购市场的流动性问题(涉及金融稳定)很重视,但次于通胀目标。

  (4)金融监管导致了这个问题。 此次欧洲央行的政策申明以及德拉吉在发布会上的表态与默施的表态非常一致:

  欧洲央行最重视的问题仍然是通胀问题!

  欧洲央行先行修复市场传导机制(通过TLTRO),再实施宽松政策。因此,TLTRO以及传导有缺陷的负利率政策寿终正寝。

  欧洲央行关注货币市场与债券市场,但不认为目前的情况会引发金融稳定的问题(包括CDS与国债)

  见智研究所对德拉吉昨天在发布会上的一些重要表态做了一些要点摘录如下:

  再次强调欧洲央行开始Taper的四大前提(four criterias):

  1.看中期(通胀)而非短期通胀

  2.寄望看到可持续的通胀,而非短暂的通胀

  3.通胀可自持(self-sustained)

  4.欧元区全范围通胀

  有关负利率与TLTRO:

  The second issue on which I would like to draw your attention is, as you know,the TLTROs are going to expire. There was no discussion about having another TLTRO, not at all. Then we had – not an intense – but just a cursory discussion about whether toremove the word 'lower' from the forward guidance.

  Now, also before I get to that, let me tell you what I said in this press conference in March 2016. I said from today's perspective, andtaking into account the support of our measures to growth and inflation, we don't anticipate that it will be necessary to reduce rates further. Of course new facts can change the situation and the outlook. Since then,we frankly never discussed this.

  降息与TLTRO都未做讨论。

  评论最近CDS Spread的飙升:

  frankly I don't see that;there are tensions but not anything that is that serious.

  认为没有那么“严重”,并强调欧元区是不可逆的。

  有关德国的贸易顺差:

  I don't think there is any merit in attacking Germany.

  In its latest report to Congress released on October 14, 2016,the US Treasury itself stressed that Germany does not manipulate the currency. Let me give you the quotes, “The Treasury has found in his report that no economy satisfied the criteria, including Germany, for being called a currency manipulator”. Second quote, “Germany has both a significant bilateral trade surplus with the United States and a current account surplus well above the material threshold”.

  美国财政部认定德国并非汇率操纵国。

  有关ECB的内部分歧:

  Now, in your first question you're asking me how the consensus changes from time to time and meeting to meeting; I actually don't have a meter to measure that. I would saythe discussion today was pretty consensual.

  内部观点比较一致。

  是否讨论了QE退出(甚至增加QE规模以及资产买入的久期):

  No, we haven't discussed either point. But by and large, if I can repeat what I said before, the original formulation of the forward guidance maintained a certain amount of flexibilityjust in case certain very negative scenarios were to materialise. From today's perspective, based on the information we have today,these scenarios have become more unlikely to materialise.

  未予讨论,极端负面情形发生的概率很小。

  有关德国国债利率:

  The other point is about thedistortions in the German market. Yes, we've observed and we are monitoring them quite closely. We asked ourselves, what could be the reasons, the causes for these interest rate movements?We are in a quite preliminary stage of our analysis so what I'm going to tell today is just very provisional. There are several causes; one is that certainly the German short-term bonds,more generally all the German bond market is viewed as a safe haven. So there have been flows towards this market and there has been what we call a flight-to-quality phenomenon as well.

  刚刚开始研究德国国债的定价扭曲问题——可能是因为德债是避险资产,而市场在“逃向质量”的时候会首选德债。

  But if we limit our attention to the short-term segment, on top of that we see that theGerman short-term bonds are equivalent to putting money in the deposit facility. So the share of those who don't have access to the deposit facility invest into German bonds, short-term bonds. This share of people has gone up. That's why we have low yields in the cash bond market on the short term, but not in the repo market because investors are different.

  对于一些金融机构而言,将资金存放在欧洲央行以及买入国债的操作实质上信用风险是同质的,但有一些机构没有准备金账户得以存放在欧洲央行的存款便利工具中,这才使得德债的利率要低于欧洲央行的利率下限。现券市场和回购市场的投资者结构不同,这才有了利率差异。

关键词阅读:德拉吉 欧洲央行 通货膨胀

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